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E. Ymer vs L. Castelnuovo prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
E. YmerL. Castelnuovo
64.9 %35.1 %
Model favourite
E. Ymer
Probability
65 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · E. Ymer

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerGuangzhou 2Round of 16hard court09:40
E. Ymer
E. Ymer
vs
L. Castelnuovo
L. Castelnuovo
1906
Elo
1787
1845
Elo on hard court
1784
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
2
Recent matches
5
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.44
Odds
2.59

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

E. Ymer
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
L. Castelnuovo
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
4 – 6
Wins – losses
5 – 5
9 – 14
Sets won – lost
11 – 11
1 win
Current streak
1 loss
17-17 (50%)
2026 record
10-13 (43%)
76-91 (46%)
Record on hard court
24-21 (53%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by E. Ymer and L. Castelnuovo, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

E. Ymer comes in with an Elo of 1906, against 1787 for L. Castelnuovo: a 120-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 61 points in favour of E. Ymer. E. Ymer won 4 of the last ten matches, L. Castelnuovo won 7. E. Ymer has 2 wins in the last five matches. L. Castelnuovo has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make E. Ymer the favourite.

The model gave E. Ymer the win at 65 %, with a likely score of 2-0. E. Ymer won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

E. Ymer's last five matches

L. Castelnuovo's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, E. Ymer beat S. Pankin (5-7 7-5 6-3). This is L. Castelnuovo's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by J. M. Cerundolo, who beat A. Tabilo in the final (6-2 6-3).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, E. Ymer wins 45 % (61 of 135), L. Castelnuovo 54 % (20 of 37). In deciding sets, E. Ymer wins 52 % of the time (123 matches), L. Castelnuovo 50 % (22 matches). After losing the first set, E. Ymer turned 21 % of matches around (169 occasions), L. Castelnuovo 17 % (36 occasions). After winning the first set, E. Ymer went on to win 79 % of matches, L. Castelnuovo 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about E. Ymer – L. Castelnuovo

Who is the favourite between E. Ymer and L. Castelnuovo?
The match is over: E. Ymer won 2-0. Bookmakers make E. Ymer the favourite, priced at 1.44 against 2.59 for L. Castelnuovo. Pronocast's model had E. Ymer winning at 65 %.
When is the E. Ymer – L. Castelnuovo match?
On Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 09:40, at the Guangzhou 2 tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between E. Ymer and L. Castelnuovo?
No meeting between E. Ymer and L. Castelnuovo appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for E. Ymer – L. Castelnuovo?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Guangzhou 2

Tournament page

Other matches on 16 September 2026

All matches on 16 September 2026