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A. Sabalenka vs L. Noskova prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
A. SabalenkaL. Noskova
72.8 %27.2 %
Model favourite
A. Sabalenka
Probability
73 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · A. Sabalenka

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.5.

WTAUS OpenQuarter-finalhard court17:30
A. Sabalenka
A. Sabalenka
vs
L. Noskova
L. Noskova
2581
Elo
2450
2571
Elo on hard court
2240
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
4
Recent matches
4
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.38
Odds
3.04

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Sabalenka
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
L. Noskova
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
8 – 2
17 – 4
Sets won – lost
16 – 7
4 wins
Current streak
4 wins
44-8 (85%)
2026 record
35-13 (73%)
181-52 (78%)
Record on hard court
78-46 (63%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Sabalenka and L. Noskova, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Sabalenka comes in with an Elo of 2581, against 2450 for L. Noskova: a 131-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 332 points in favour of A. Sabalenka. A. Sabalenka won 8 of the last ten matches, L. Noskova won 8. A. Sabalenka has 4 wins in the last five matches. L. Noskova has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. Sabalenka leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Sabalenka the favourite.

The model gave A. Sabalenka the win at 73 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Sabalenka won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. Sabalenka's last five matches

L. Noskova's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. Sabalenka leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. Sabalenka beat C. Osorio (6-2 6-4), then P. Iatcenko (6-1 6-1), then K. Rakhimova (6-3 6-4), then T. Townsend (6-4 6-3). To reach this round, L. Noskova beat K. Volynets (7-5 6-1), then L. Tararudee (6-4 6-2), then A. Li (6-2 6-7 6-2), then M. Kostyuk (7-5 5-7 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Sabalenka, who beat A. Anisimova in the final (6-3 7-6). A. Sabalenka is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Sabalenka wins 68 % (64 of 94), L. Noskova 63 % (49 of 78). In deciding sets, A. Sabalenka wins 56 % of the time (105 matches), L. Noskova 59 % (76 matches). After losing the first set, A. Sabalenka turned 38 % of matches around (90 occasions), L. Noskova 22 % (82 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Sabalenka went on to win 91 % of matches, L. Noskova 88 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Sabalenka – L. Noskova

Who is the favourite between A. Sabalenka and L. Noskova?
The match is over: A. Sabalenka won 2-1. Bookmakers make A. Sabalenka the favourite, priced at 1.38 against 3.04 for L. Noskova. Pronocast's model had A. Sabalenka winning at 73 %.
When is the A. Sabalenka – L. Noskova match?
On Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 17:30, at the US Open tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Sabalenka and L. Noskova?
Since 2020, A. Sabalenka leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Sabalenka – L. Noskova?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: US Open

Tournament page

Other matches on 8 September 2026

All matches on 8 September 2026