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L. Castelnuovo vs P. Kotov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
L. CastelnuovoP. Kotov
16.5 %83.5 %
Model favourite
P. Kotov
Probability
84 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · P. Kotov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPChengduQualifyinghard court09:45
L. Castelnuovo
L. Castelnuovo
vs
P. Kotov
P. Kotov
1776
Elo
2022
1770
Elo on hard court
2041
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
5
Recent matches
9
Even
Head-to-head
Even
–
Odds
–

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

L. Castelnuovo
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
P. Kotov
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
5 – 5
Wins – losses
7 – 3
11 – 11
Sets won – lost
14 – 8
2 losses
Current streak
1 loss
10-14 (42%)
2026 record
27-9 (75%)
24-22 (52%)
Record on hard court
96-74 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by L. Castelnuovo and P. Kotov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Kotov comes in with an Elo of 2022, against 1776 for L. Castelnuovo: a 246-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 272 points in favour of P. Kotov. L. Castelnuovo won 7 of the last ten matches, P. Kotov won 7. L. Castelnuovo has 3 wins in the last five matches. P. Kotov has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. No bookmaker odds are available for this match.

The model gave P. Kotov the win at 84 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Kotov won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

L. Castelnuovo's last five matches

P. Kotov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is L. Castelnuovo's first match of the tournament. This is P. Kotov's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Tabilo, who beat L. Musetti in the final (6-3 2-6 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, L. Castelnuovo wins 53 % (20 of 38), P. Kotov 56 % (73 of 131). In deciding sets, L. Castelnuovo wins 50 % of the time (22 matches), P. Kotov 54 % (101 matches). After losing the first set, L. Castelnuovo turned 16 % of matches around (37 occasions), P. Kotov 23 % (137 occasions). After winning the first set, L. Castelnuovo went on to win 84 % of matches, P. Kotov 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about L. Castelnuovo – P. Kotov

Who is the favourite between L. Castelnuovo and P. Kotov?
The match is over: P. Kotov won 2-1. No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model had P. Kotov winning at 84 %.
When is the L. Castelnuovo – P. Kotov match?
On Tuesday, 22 September 2026 at 09:45, at the Chengdu tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between L. Castelnuovo and P. Kotov?
No meeting between L. Castelnuovo and P. Kotov appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for L. Castelnuovo – P. Kotov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Chengdu

Tournament page

Other matches on 22 September 2026

All matches on 22 September 2026