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M. Alves vs G. Villanueva prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. AlvesG. Villanueva
68.1 %31.9 %
Model favourite
M. Alves
Probability
68 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · G. Villanueva

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerCuritibaRound of 16clay20:45
M. Alves
M. Alves
vs
G. Villanueva
G. Villanueva
1853
Elo
1896
1835
Elo on clay
1905
10 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
6
Recent matches
2
–
Head-to-head
Edge
1.39
Odds
2.92

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Alves
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
G. Villanueva
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
3 – 7
Wins – losses
6 – 4
10 – 15
Sets won – lost
15 – 9
1 win
Current streak
1 win
5-9 (36%)
2026 record
23-18 (56%)
85-78 (52%)
Record on clay
134-138 (49%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Alves and G. Villanueva, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

G. Villanueva comes in with an Elo of 1896, against 1853 for M. Alves: a 43-point edge. On clay, the gap is 69 points in favour of G. Villanueva. M. Alves won 10 of the last ten matches, G. Villanueva won 7. M. Alves has 2 wins in the last five matches. G. Villanueva has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020 they have met 2 times, 1 win(s) each. Bookmakers make M. Alves the favourite.

The model gave M. Alves the win at 68 %, with a likely score of 2-0. G. Villanueva won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Alves's last five matches

G. Villanueva's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

Level, 1 win(s) each

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Alves beat J. Pereira (6-2 1-6 6-4). To reach this round, G. Villanueva beat J. C. Prado Angelo (3-6 6-3 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by D. Vallejo, who beat P. Boscardin Dias in the final (6-3 7-5).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Alves wins 48 % (35 of 73), G. Villanueva 45 % (41 of 91). In deciding sets, M. Alves wins 39 % of the time (64 matches), G. Villanueva 56 % (89 matches). After losing the first set, M. Alves turned 13 % of matches around (86 occasions), G. Villanueva 20 % (163 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Alves went on to win 83 % of matches, G. Villanueva 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Alves – G. Villanueva

Who is the favourite between M. Alves and G. Villanueva?
The match is over: G. Villanueva won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Alves the favourite, priced at 1.39 against 2.92 for G. Villanueva. Pronocast's model had M. Alves winning at 68 %.
When is the M. Alves – G. Villanueva match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 20:45, at the Curitiba tournament (Round of 16, clay).
What is the head-to-head between M. Alves and G. Villanueva?
Since 2020 they have met 2 times, 1 win(s) each.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Alves – G. Villanueva?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Curitiba

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026