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M. Arnaldi vs R. Sakamoto prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. ArnaldiR. Sakamoto
43.1 %56.9 %
Model favourite
R. Sakamoto
Probability
57 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-1 · M. Arnaldi

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoRound of 32hard court11:00
M. Arnaldi
M. Arnaldi
vs
R. Sakamoto
R. Sakamoto
2103
Elo
2053
1929
Elo on hard court
2000
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
0
Recent matches
1
Edge
Head-to-head
–
2.11
Odds
1.62

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Arnaldi
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
R. Sakamoto
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
6 – 4
13 – 17
Sets won – lost
14 – 12
3 losses
Current streak
1 win
17-15 (53%)
2026 record
35-21 (63%)
66-72 (48%)
Record on hard court
62-44 (58%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Arnaldi and R. Sakamoto, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Arnaldi comes in with an Elo of 2103, against 2053 for R. Sakamoto: a 49-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 71 points in favour of R. Sakamoto. M. Arnaldi won 4 of the last ten matches, R. Sakamoto won 6. M. Arnaldi has one win in the last five matches. R. Sakamoto has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Arnaldi leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make R. Sakamoto the favourite.

The model gave R. Sakamoto the win at 57 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Arnaldi won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Arnaldi's last five matches

R. Sakamoto's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Arnaldi leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is M. Arnaldi's first match of the tournament. This is R. Sakamoto's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Arnaldi wins 57 % (69 of 120), R. Sakamoto 49 % (33 of 67). In deciding sets, M. Arnaldi wins 51 % of the time (123 matches), R. Sakamoto 66 % (44 matches). After losing the first set, M. Arnaldi turned 26 % of matches around (129 occasions), R. Sakamoto 26 % (68 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Arnaldi went on to win 78 % of matches, R. Sakamoto 90 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Arnaldi – R. Sakamoto

Who is the favourite between M. Arnaldi and R. Sakamoto?
The match is over: M. Arnaldi won 2-1. Bookmakers make R. Sakamoto the favourite, priced at 1.62 against 2.11 for M. Arnaldi. Pronocast's model had R. Sakamoto winning at 57 %.
When is the M. Arnaldi – R. Sakamoto match?
On Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 11:00, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Arnaldi and R. Sakamoto?
Since 2020, M. Arnaldi leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Arnaldi – R. Sakamoto?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 30 September 2026

All matches on 30 September 2026