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S. Mochizuki vs P. Kotov prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
S. MochizukiP. Kotov
41.1 %58.9 %
Model favourite
P. Kotov
Probability
59 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · S. Mochizuki

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPChengduQualifyinghard court08:40
S. Mochizuki
S. Mochizuki
vs
P. Kotov
P. Kotov
1953
Elo
2028
1832
Elo on hard court
2047
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
2
Recent matches
9
–
Head-to-head
Edge
–
Odds
–

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

S. Mochizuki
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
P. Kotov
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
8 – 2
10 – 15
Sets won – lost
16 – 7
1 win
Current streak
1 win
20-29 (41%)
2026 record
28-9 (76%)
117-109 (52%)
Record on hard court
97-74 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by S. Mochizuki and P. Kotov, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Kotov comes in with an Elo of 2028, against 1953 for S. Mochizuki: a 75-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 215 points in favour of P. Kotov. S. Mochizuki won 4 of the last ten matches, P. Kotov won 8. S. Mochizuki has 2 wins in the last five matches. P. Kotov has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, P. Kotov leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. No bookmaker odds are available for this match.

The model gave P. Kotov the win at 59 %, with a likely score of 2-0. S. Mochizuki won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

S. Mochizuki's last five matches

P. Kotov's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

P. Kotov leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, S. Mochizuki beat L. Xiao (7-5 4-6 7-5). To reach this round, P. Kotov beat L. Castelnuovo (6-7 7-5 7-5). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Tabilo, who beat L. Musetti in the final (6-3 2-6 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, S. Mochizuki wins 55 % (59 of 107), P. Kotov 55 % (73 of 132). In deciding sets, S. Mochizuki wins 53 % of the time (121 matches), P. Kotov 55 % (102 matches). After losing the first set, S. Mochizuki turned 20 % of matches around (168 occasions), P. Kotov 24 % (138 occasions). After winning the first set, S. Mochizuki went on to win 83 % of matches, P. Kotov 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about S. Mochizuki – P. Kotov

Who is the favourite between S. Mochizuki and P. Kotov?
The match is over: S. Mochizuki won 2-0. No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Pronocast's model had P. Kotov winning at 59 %.
When is the S. Mochizuki – P. Kotov match?
On Wednesday, 23 September 2026 at 08:40, at the Chengdu tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between S. Mochizuki and P. Kotov?
Since 2020, P. Kotov leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for S. Mochizuki – P. Kotov?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Chengdu

Tournament page

Other matches on 23 September 2026

All matches on 23 September 2026