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S. Shimabukuro vs H. Gaston prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
S. ShimabukuroH. Gaston
53.0 %47.0 %
Model favourite
S. Shimabukuro
Probability
53 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · H. Gaston

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPHangzhouRound of 32hard court07:10
S. Shimabukuro
S. Shimabukuro
vs
H. Gaston
H. Gaston
2019
Elo
2052
1887
Elo on hard court
1990
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
2
Recent matches
0
–
Head-to-head
Edge
1.83
Odds
1.94

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

S. Shimabukuro
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
H. Gaston
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
4 – 6
Wins – losses
5 – 5
11 – 14
Sets won – lost
12 – 12
2 wins
Current streak
1 loss
29-25 (54%)
2026 record
26-24 (52%)
116-91 (56%)
Record on hard court
86-82 (51%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by S. Shimabukuro and H. Gaston, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

H. Gaston comes in with an Elo of 2052, against 2019 for S. Shimabukuro: a 33-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 103 points in favour of H. Gaston. S. Shimabukuro won 4 of the last ten matches, H. Gaston won 5. S. Shimabukuro has 2 wins in the last five matches. H. Gaston has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, H. Gaston leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make S. Shimabukuro the favourite.

The model gave S. Shimabukuro the win at 53 %, with a likely score of 2-0. H. Gaston won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

S. Shimabukuro's last five matches

H. Gaston's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

H. Gaston leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is S. Shimabukuro's first match of the tournament. This is H. Gaston's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Bublik, who beat V. Royer in the final (7-6 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, S. Shimabukuro wins 50 % (52 of 105), H. Gaston 60 % (68 of 113). In deciding sets, S. Shimabukuro wins 49 % of the time (98 matches), H. Gaston 54 % (124 matches). After losing the first set, S. Shimabukuro turned 20 % of matches around (108 occasions), H. Gaston 23 % (159 occasions). After winning the first set, S. Shimabukuro went on to win 82 % of matches, H. Gaston 78 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about S. Shimabukuro – H. Gaston

Who is the favourite between S. Shimabukuro and H. Gaston?
The match is over: H. Gaston won 2-0. Bookmakers make S. Shimabukuro the favourite, priced at 1.83 against 1.94 for H. Gaston. Pronocast's model had S. Shimabukuro winning at 53 %.
When is the S. Shimabukuro – H. Gaston match?
On Thursday, 24 September 2026 at 07:10, at the Hangzhou tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between S. Shimabukuro and H. Gaston?
Since 2020, H. Gaston leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for S. Shimabukuro – H. Gaston?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Hangzhou

Tournament page

Other matches on 24 September 2026

All matches on 24 September 2026