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Y. Erel vs M. Bellucci prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
Y. ErelM. Bellucci
25.2 %74.8 %
Model favourite
M. Bellucci
Probability
75 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · M. Bellucci

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerJingshanSemi-finalhard court09:15
Y. Erel
Y. Erel
vs
M. Bellucci
M. Bellucci
1953
Elo
2129
1951
Elo on hard court
2032
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
4
Recent matches
5
–
Head-to-head
Edge
3.43
Odds
1.24

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

Y. Erel
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
M. Bellucci
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
6 – 4
16 – 8
Sets won – lost
15 – 10
3 wins
Current streak
4 wins
17-9 (65%)
2026 record
31-26 (54%)
37-26 (59%)
Record on hard court
112-83 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by Y. Erel and M. Bellucci, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Bellucci comes in with an Elo of 2129, against 1953 for Y. Erel: a 176-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 81 points in favour of M. Bellucci. Y. Erel won 7 of the last ten matches, M. Bellucci won 6. Y. Erel has 3 wins in the last five matches. M. Bellucci has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Bellucci leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make M. Bellucci the favourite.

The model gave M. Bellucci the win at 75 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Bellucci won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

Y. Erel's last five matches

M. Bellucci's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Bellucci leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, Y. Erel beat A. Weber (6-4 6-2), then M. Zheng (6-1 7-6), then F. Cina (7-5 7-6). To reach this round, M. Bellucci beat F. Peliwo (6-2 6-4), then K. Saitoh (6-2 6-2), then A. Muller (6-0 6-3), then A. Walton (7-5 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by E. Spizzirri, who beat A. Bolt in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, Y. Erel wins 51 % (19 of 37), M. Bellucci 53 % (60 of 113). In deciding sets, Y. Erel wins 45 % of the time (29 matches), M. Bellucci 49 % (70 matches). After losing the first set, Y. Erel turned 16 % of matches around (37 occasions), M. Bellucci 13 % (116 occasions). After winning the first set, Y. Erel went on to win 78 % of matches, M. Bellucci 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about Y. Erel – M. Bellucci

Who is the favourite between Y. Erel and M. Bellucci?
The match is over: M. Bellucci won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Bellucci the favourite, priced at 1.24 against 3.43 for Y. Erel. Pronocast's model had M. Bellucci winning at 75 %.
When is the Y. Erel – M. Bellucci match?
On Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 09:15, at the Jingshan tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between Y. Erel and M. Bellucci?
Since 2020, M. Bellucci leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for Y. Erel – M. Bellucci?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Jingshan

Tournament page

Other matches on 3 October 2026

All matches on 3 October 2026