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Z. Zhang vs A. Gea prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
Z. ZhangA. Gea
25.5 %74.5 %
Model favourite
A. Gea
Probability
75 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · A. Gea

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingRound of 32hard court12:05
Z. Zhang
Z. Zhang
vs
A. Gea
A. Gea
1968
Elo
2198
1854
Elo on hard court
2197
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
1
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
3.70
Odds
1.28

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

Z. Zhang
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
A. Gea
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
4 – 6
Wins – losses
8 – 2
11 – 14
Sets won – lost
21 – 11
3 losses
Current streak
2 wins
21-22 (49%)
2026 record
41-16 (72%)
60-69 (47%)
Record on hard court
34-26 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by Z. Zhang and A. Gea, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Gea comes in with an Elo of 2198, against 1968 for Z. Zhang: a 231-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 344 points in favour of A. Gea. Z. Zhang won 4 of the last ten matches, A. Gea won 8. Z. Zhang has one win in the last five matches. A. Gea has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make A. Gea the favourite.

The model gave A. Gea the win at 75 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Gea won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

Z. Zhang's last five matches

A. Gea's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is Z. Zhang's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, A. Gea beat R. Te (6-2 6-3), then T. Machac (6-3 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, Z. Zhang wins 46 % (64 of 139), A. Gea 55 % (32 of 58). In deciding sets, Z. Zhang wins 56 % of the time (99 matches), A. Gea 48 % (61 matches). After losing the first set, Z. Zhang turned 25 % of matches around (130 occasions), A. Gea 19 % (72 occasions). After winning the first set, Z. Zhang went on to win 80 % of matches, A. Gea 81 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about Z. Zhang – A. Gea

Who is the favourite between Z. Zhang and A. Gea?
The match is over: A. Gea won 2-0. Bookmakers make A. Gea the favourite, priced at 1.28 against 3.70 for Z. Zhang. Pronocast's model had A. Gea winning at 75 %.
When is the Z. Zhang – A. Gea match?
On Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 12:05, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between Z. Zhang and A. Gea?
No meeting between Z. Zhang and A. Gea appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for Z. Zhang – A. Gea?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 30 September 2026

All matches on 30 September 2026