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A. Bolt vs D. Sweeny prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
A. BoltD. Sweeny
44.7 %55.3 %
Model favourite
D. Sweeny
Probability
55 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-0 · A. Bolt

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerJingshanQuarter-finalhard court07:10
A. Bolt
A. Bolt
vs
D. Sweeny
D. Sweeny
1932
Elo
1930
1893
Elo on hard court
1850
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
4 / 10
5
Recent matches
3
Edge
Head-to-head
–
2.22
Odds
1.65

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Bolt
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
D. Sweeny
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
5 – 5
Wins – losses
4 – 6
10 – 12
Sets won – lost
11 – 15
2 wins
Current streak
2 wins
21-21 (50%)
2026 record
25-24 (51%)
82-81 (50%)
Record on hard court
80-91 (47%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Bolt and D. Sweeny, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (1932 against 1930): nothing separates them in the model's rating. On hard court, the gap is 43 points in favour of A. Bolt. A. Bolt won 5 of the last ten matches, D. Sweeny won 4. A. Bolt has 4 wins in the last five matches. D. Sweeny has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. Bolt leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make D. Sweeny the favourite.

The model gave D. Sweeny the win at 55 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Bolt won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

A. Bolt's last five matches

D. Sweeny's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. Bolt leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. Bolt beat S. Pankin (6-3 6-2), then E. Zhu (6-7 6-4 6-2). To reach this round, D. Sweeny beat O. Jasika (6-2 3-6 6-3), then P. Bar Biryukov (6-4 6-1). In 2025, the tournament was won by E. Spizzirri, who beat A. Bolt in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Bolt wins 56 % (60 of 108), D. Sweeny 52 % (32 of 62). In deciding sets, A. Bolt wins 49 % of the time (70 matches), D. Sweeny 52 % (61 matches). After losing the first set, A. Bolt turned 17 % of matches around (109 occasions), D. Sweeny 20 % (114 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Bolt went on to win 84 % of matches, D. Sweeny 80 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Bolt – D. Sweeny

Who is the favourite between A. Bolt and D. Sweeny?
The match is over: A. Bolt won 2-0. Bookmakers make D. Sweeny the favourite, priced at 1.65 against 2.22 for A. Bolt. Pronocast's model had D. Sweeny winning at 55 %.
When is the A. Bolt – D. Sweeny match?
On Friday, 2 October 2026 at 07:10, at the Jingshan tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Bolt and D. Sweeny?
Since 2020, A. Bolt leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Bolt – D. Sweeny?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Jingshan

Tournament page

Other matches on 2 October 2026

All matches on 2 October 2026