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A. Fils vs F. Tiafoe prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
A. FilsF. Tiafoe
70.9 %29.1 %
Model favourite
A. Fils
Probability
71 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · A. Fils

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoRound of 16hard court11:50
A. Fils
A. Fils
vs
F. Tiafoe
F. Tiafoe
2458
Elo
2386
2316
Elo on hard court
2292
9 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
3
Recent matches
1
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.35
Odds
2.81

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Fils
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
F. Tiafoe
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
9 – 1
Wins – losses
8 – 2
19 – 7
Sets won – lost
23 – 9
3 wins
Current streak
1 win
34-10 (77%)
2026 record
43-16 (73%)
93-58 (62%)
Record on hard court
131-82 (62%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Fils and F. Tiafoe, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Fils comes in with an Elo of 2458, against 2386 for F. Tiafoe: a 72-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 23 points in favour of A. Fils. A. Fils won 9 of the last ten matches, F. Tiafoe won 8. A. Fils has 4 wins in the last five matches. F. Tiafoe has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. Fils leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Fils the favourite.

The model gave A. Fils the win at 71 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Fils won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. Fils's last five matches

F. Tiafoe's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. Fils leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. Fils beat M. Damm (2-6 6-1 6-1), then K. Majchrzak (6-2 3-6 6-1), then L. van Assche (6-3 6-2). To reach this round, F. Tiafoe beat K. Nishikori (6-4 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Fils wins 58 % (69 of 118), F. Tiafoe 60 % (120 of 201). In deciding sets, A. Fils wins 63 % of the time (87 matches), F. Tiafoe 57 % (115 matches). After losing the first set, A. Fils turned 29 % of matches around (113 occasions), F. Tiafoe 32 % (138 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Fils went on to win 87 % of matches, F. Tiafoe 82 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Fils – F. Tiafoe

Who is the favourite between A. Fils and F. Tiafoe?
The match is over: A. Fils won 2-0. Bookmakers make A. Fils the favourite, priced at 1.35 against 2.81 for F. Tiafoe. Pronocast's model had A. Fils winning at 71 %.
When is the A. Fils – F. Tiafoe match?
On Friday, 2 October 2026 at 11:50, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Fils and F. Tiafoe?
Since 2020, A. Fils leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Fils – F. Tiafoe?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 2 October 2026

All matches on 2 October 2026