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D. Medvedev vs P. Carreno-Busta prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
D. MedvedevP. Carreno-Busta
76.3 %23.7 %
Model favourite
D. Medvedev
Probability
76 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · D. Medvedev

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingRound of 32hard court09:10
D. Medvedev
D. Medvedev
vs
P. Carreno-Busta
P. Carreno-Busta
2325
Elo
2180
2292
Elo on hard court
2037
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
4
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.23
Odds
4.07

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

D. Medvedev
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
P. Carreno-Busta
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
7 – 3
Wins – losses
5 – 5
18 – 8
Sets won – lost
14 – 11
4 wins
Current streak
2 wins
38-16 (70%)
2026 record
27-17 (61%)
190-67 (74%)
Record on hard court
74-51 (59%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by D. Medvedev and P. Carreno-Busta, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

D. Medvedev comes in with an Elo of 2325, against 2180 for P. Carreno-Busta: a 145-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 255 points in favour of D. Medvedev. D. Medvedev won 7 of the last ten matches, P. Carreno-Busta won 5. D. Medvedev has 4 wins in the last five matches. P. Carreno-Busta has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, D. Medvedev leads 2 to 1 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make D. Medvedev the favourite.

The model gave D. Medvedev the win at 76 %, with a likely score of 2-0. D. Medvedev won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

D. Medvedev's last five matches

P. Carreno-Busta's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

D. Medvedev leads 2 to 1

Road through the tournament

This is D. Medvedev's first match of the tournament. To reach this round, P. Carreno-Busta beat Y. Zhou (7-5 6-3), then A. Mannarino (6-3 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, D. Medvedev wins 53 % (81 of 154), P. Carreno-Busta 56 % (55 of 99). In deciding sets, D. Medvedev wins 59 % of the time (104 matches), P. Carreno-Busta 49 % (88 matches). After losing the first set, D. Medvedev turned 34 % of matches around (119 occasions), P. Carreno-Busta 23 % (88 occasions). After winning the first set, D. Medvedev went on to win 91 % of matches, P. Carreno-Busta 81 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about D. Medvedev – P. Carreno-Busta

Who is the favourite between D. Medvedev and P. Carreno-Busta?
The match is over: D. Medvedev won 2-0. Bookmakers make D. Medvedev the favourite, priced at 1.23 against 4.07 for P. Carreno-Busta. Pronocast's model had D. Medvedev winning at 76 %.
When is the D. Medvedev – P. Carreno-Busta match?
On Friday, 2 October 2026 at 09:10, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between D. Medvedev and P. Carreno-Busta?
Since 2020, D. Medvedev leads 2 to 1 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for D. Medvedev – P. Carreno-Busta?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 2 October 2026

All matches on 2 October 2026