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F. Maestrelli vs M. Kasnikowski prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
F. MaestrelliM. Kasnikowski
44.9 %55.1 %
Model favourite
M. Kasnikowski
Probability
55 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · M. Kasnikowski

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerIstanbulQuarter-finalhard court11:55
F. Maestrelli
F. Maestrelli
vs
M. Kasnikowski
M. Kasnikowski
1882
Elo
1950
1902
Elo on hard court
1842
3 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
2
Recent matches
4
–
Head-to-head
Edge
2.14
Odds
1.62

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

F. Maestrelli
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
M. Kasnikowski
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
3 – 7
Wins – losses
5 – 5
10 – 15
Sets won – lost
13 – 13
2 wins
Current streak
2 wins
15-23 (39%)
2026 record
33-22 (60%)
65-55 (54%)
Record on hard court
58-44 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by F. Maestrelli and M. Kasnikowski, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Kasnikowski comes in with an Elo of 1950, against 1882 for F. Maestrelli: a 68-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 60 points in favour of F. Maestrelli. F. Maestrelli won 3 of the last ten matches, M. Kasnikowski won 5. F. Maestrelli has 2 wins in the last five matches. M. Kasnikowski has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Kasnikowski leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make M. Kasnikowski the favourite.

The model gave M. Kasnikowski the win at 55 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Kasnikowski won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

F. Maestrelli's last five matches

M. Kasnikowski's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Kasnikowski leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, F. Maestrelli beat J. P. Ficovich (6-2 6-2), then A. Ayeni (6-7 6-1 6-4). To reach this round, M. Kasnikowski beat I. Marrero Curbelo (4-6 7-5 6-0), then C. Langmo (6-3 7-6). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Molcan, who beat N. Mejia in the final (7-6 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, F. Maestrelli wins 52 % (57 of 109), M. Kasnikowski 50 % (45 of 90). In deciding sets, F. Maestrelli wins 55 % of the time (105 matches), M. Kasnikowski 47 % (81 matches). After losing the first set, F. Maestrelli turned 23 % of matches around (164 occasions), M. Kasnikowski 27 % (86 occasions). After winning the first set, F. Maestrelli went on to win 87 % of matches, M. Kasnikowski 76 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about F. Maestrelli – M. Kasnikowski

Who is the favourite between F. Maestrelli and M. Kasnikowski?
The match is over: M. Kasnikowski won 2-1. Bookmakers make M. Kasnikowski the favourite, priced at 1.62 against 2.14 for F. Maestrelli. Pronocast's model had M. Kasnikowski winning at 55 %.
When is the F. Maestrelli – M. Kasnikowski match?
On Friday, 11 September 2026 at 11:55, at the Istanbul tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between F. Maestrelli and M. Kasnikowski?
Since 2020, M. Kasnikowski leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for F. Maestrelli – M. Kasnikowski?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Istanbul

Tournament page

Other matches on 11 September 2026

All matches on 11 September 2026