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C. Gauff vs E. Rybakina prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
C. GauffE. Rybakina
47.4 %52.6 %
Model favourite
E. Rybakina
Probability
53 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · E. Rybakina

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTAUS OpenSemi-finalhard court03:00
C. Gauff
C. Gauff
vs
E. Rybakina
E. Rybakina
2571
Elo
2574
2480
Elo on hard court
2557
10 / 10
Form (last 10)
9 / 10
4
Recent matches
4
–
Head-to-head
Edge
1.98
Odds
1.86

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Gauff
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
E. Rybakina
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
10 – 0
Wins – losses
9 – 1
20 – 1
Sets won – lost
18 – 4
11 wins
Current streak
8 wins
45-12 (79%)
2026 record
46-11 (81%)
165-58 (74%)
Record on hard court
170-56 (75%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Gauff and E. Rybakina, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (2571 against 2574): nothing separates them in the model's rating. On hard court, the gap is 78 points in favour of E. Rybakina. C. Gauff won 10 of the last ten matches, E. Rybakina won 9. C. Gauff has 5 wins in the last five matches. E. Rybakina has 5 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020 they have met 2 times, 1 win(s) each. Bookmakers make E. Rybakina the favourite.

The model gave E. Rybakina the win at 53 %, with a likely score of 2-0. E. Rybakina won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

C. Gauff's last five matches

E. Rybakina's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

Level, 1 win(s) each

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, C. Gauff beat Z. Sonmez (6-3 6-4), then P. Badosa (6-4 7-6), then C. Bucsa (6-3 6-4), then I. Jovic (6-1 6-4), then M. Andreeva (2-6 7-6 6-2). To reach this round, E. Rybakina beat T. Frodin (6-3 6-2), then J. Bouzas Maneiro (6-2 6-4), then Y. Starodubtseva (7-6 6-3), then N. Osaka (6-1 6-4), then Q. Zheng (3-6 6-1 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Sabalenka, who beat A. Anisimova in the final (6-3 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. Gauff wins 66 % (52 of 79), E. Rybakina 56 % (62 of 111). In deciding sets, C. Gauff wins 65 % of the time (96 matches), E. Rybakina 60 % (121 matches). After losing the first set, C. Gauff turned 34 % of matches around (106 occasions), E. Rybakina 39 % (101 occasions). After winning the first set, C. Gauff went on to win 92 % of matches, E. Rybakina 89 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Gauff – E. Rybakina

Who is the favourite between C. Gauff and E. Rybakina?
The match is over: E. Rybakina won 2-1. Bookmakers make E. Rybakina the favourite, priced at 1.86 against 1.98 for C. Gauff. Pronocast's model had E. Rybakina winning at 53 %.
When is the C. Gauff – E. Rybakina match?
On Friday, 11 September 2026 at 03:00, at the US Open tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between C. Gauff and E. Rybakina?
Since 2020 they have met 2 times, 1 win(s) each.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Gauff – E. Rybakina?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: US Open

Tournament page

Other matches on 11 September 2026

All matches on 11 September 2026