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A. Sabalenka vs J. Pegula prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
A. SabalenkaJ. Pegula
58.8 %41.2 %
Model favourite
A. Sabalenka
Probability
59 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · A. Sabalenka

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTAUS OpenSemi-finalhard court01:15
A. Sabalenka
A. Sabalenka
vs
J. Pegula
J. Pegula
2589
Elo
2530
2575
Elo on hard court
2444
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
9 / 10
5
Recent matches
5
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.63
Odds
2.30

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Sabalenka
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
J. Pegula
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
9 – 1
17 – 5
Sets won – lost
18 – 7
5 wins
Current streak
5 wins
45-8 (85%)
2026 record
49-12 (80%)
182-52 (78%)
Record on hard court
181-69 (72%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Sabalenka and J. Pegula, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Sabalenka comes in with an Elo of 2589, against 2530 for J. Pegula: a 59-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 131 points in favour of A. Sabalenka. A. Sabalenka won 8 of the last ten matches, J. Pegula won 9. A. Sabalenka has 5 wins in the last five matches. J. Pegula has 5 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. Sabalenka leads 7 to 3 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Sabalenka the favourite.

The model gave A. Sabalenka the win at 59 %, with a likely score of 2-0. A. Sabalenka won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. Sabalenka's last five matches

J. Pegula's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. Sabalenka leads 7 to 3

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. Sabalenka beat C. Osorio (6-2 6-4), then P. Iatcenko (6-1 6-1), then K. Rakhimova (6-3 6-4), then T. Townsend (6-4 6-3), then L. Noskova (7-6 3-6 7-6). To reach this round, J. Pegula beat G. Ruse (6-3 6-2), then S. Kenin (6-3 6-1), then L. Fernandez (1-6 6-4 6-3), then S. Cirstea (6-3 6-4), then E. Navarro (3-6 6-4 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Sabalenka, who beat A. Anisimova in the final (6-3 7-6). A. Sabalenka is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Sabalenka wins 69 % (66 of 96), J. Pegula 54 % (45 of 84). In deciding sets, A. Sabalenka wins 57 % of the time (106 matches), J. Pegula 66 % (121 matches). After losing the first set, A. Sabalenka turned 38 % of matches around (90 occasions), J. Pegula 36 % (119 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Sabalenka went on to win 91 % of matches, J. Pegula 90 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Sabalenka – J. Pegula

Who is the favourite between A. Sabalenka and J. Pegula?
The match is over: A. Sabalenka won 2-0. Bookmakers make A. Sabalenka the favourite, priced at 1.63 against 2.30 for J. Pegula. Pronocast's model had A. Sabalenka winning at 59 %.
When is the A. Sabalenka – J. Pegula match?
On Friday, 11 September 2026 at 01:15, at the US Open tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Sabalenka and J. Pegula?
Since 2020, A. Sabalenka leads 7 to 3 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Sabalenka – J. Pegula?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: US Open

Tournament page

Other matches on 11 September 2026

All matches on 11 September 2026