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H. Hurkacz vs A. Gea prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
H. HurkaczA. Gea
58.4 %41.6 %
Model favourite
H. Hurkacz
Probability
58 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · H. Hurkacz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingRound of 16hard court13:25
H. Hurkacz
H. Hurkacz
vs
A. Gea
A. Gea
2309
Elo
2205
2162
Elo on hard court
2203
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
6
Recent matches
3
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.65
Odds
2.25

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

H. Hurkacz
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
A. Gea
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
8 – 2
18 – 10
Sets won – lost
21 – 11
1 win
Current streak
3 wins
30-19 (61%)
2026 record
42-16 (72%)
125-76 (62%)
Record on hard court
35-26 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by H. Hurkacz and A. Gea, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

H. Hurkacz comes in with an Elo of 2309, against 2205 for A. Gea: a 103-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 41 points in favour of A. Gea. H. Hurkacz won 8 of the last ten matches, A. Gea won 8. H. Hurkacz has 4 wins in the last five matches. A. Gea has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make H. Hurkacz the favourite.

The model gave H. Hurkacz the win at 58 %, with a likely score of 2-0. H. Hurkacz won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

H. Hurkacz's last five matches

A. Gea's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, H. Hurkacz beat L. Tien (5-7 6-3 6-4). To reach this round, A. Gea beat R. Te (6-2 6-3), then T. Machac (6-3 6-4), then Z. Zhang (6-4 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, H. Hurkacz wins 53 % (125 of 235), A. Gea 55 % (32 of 58). In deciding sets, H. Hurkacz wins 56 % of the time (131 matches), A. Gea 48 % (61 matches). After losing the first set, H. Hurkacz turned 32 % of matches around (114 occasions), A. Gea 19 % (72 occasions). After winning the first set, H. Hurkacz went on to win 83 % of matches, A. Gea 82 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about H. Hurkacz – A. Gea

Who is the favourite between H. Hurkacz and A. Gea?
The match is over: H. Hurkacz won 2-1. Bookmakers make H. Hurkacz the favourite, priced at 1.65 against 2.25 for A. Gea. Pronocast's model had H. Hurkacz winning at 58 %.
When is the H. Hurkacz – A. Gea match?
On Friday, 2 October 2026 at 13:25, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between H. Hurkacz and A. Gea?
No meeting between H. Hurkacz and A. Gea appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for H. Hurkacz – A. Gea?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 2 October 2026

All matches on 2 October 2026