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A. Sabalenka vs E. Rybakina prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
A. SabalenkaE. Rybakina
57.0 %43.0 %
Model favourite
A. Sabalenka
Probability
57 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-2 · E. Rybakina

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

WTAUS OpenFinalhard court22:15
A. Sabalenka
A. Sabalenka
vs
E. Rybakina
E. Rybakina
2602
Elo
2591
2587
Elo on hard court
2575
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
9 / 10
6
Recent matches
6
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.69
Odds
2.21

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Sabalenka
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
E. Rybakina
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
9 – 1
17 – 5
Sets won – lost
18 – 4
6 wins
Current streak
9 wins
46-8 (85%)
2026 record
47-11 (81%)
183-52 (78%)
Record on hard court
171-56 (75%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Sabalenka and E. Rybakina, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (2602 against 2591): nothing separates them in the model's rating. A. Sabalenka won 8 of the last ten matches, E. Rybakina won 9. A. Sabalenka has 5 wins in the last five matches. E. Rybakina has 5 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, A. Sabalenka leads 9 to 7 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Sabalenka the favourite.

The model gave A. Sabalenka the win at 57 %, with a likely score of 2-0. E. Rybakina won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

A. Sabalenka's last five matches

E. Rybakina's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

A. Sabalenka leads 9 to 7

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. Sabalenka beat C. Osorio (6-2 6-4), then P. Iatcenko (6-1 6-1), then K. Rakhimova (6-3 6-4), then T. Townsend (6-4 6-3), then L. Noskova (7-6 3-6 7-6), then J. Pegula (7-5 6-2). To reach this round, E. Rybakina beat T. Frodin (6-3 6-2), then J. Bouzas Maneiro (6-2 6-4), then Y. Starodubtseva (7-6 6-3), then N. Osaka (6-1 6-4), then Q. Zheng (3-6 6-1 6-4), then C. Gauff (3-6 6-4 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Sabalenka, who beat A. Anisimova in the final (6-3 7-6). A. Sabalenka is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Sabalenka wins 69 % (66 of 96), E. Rybakina 56 % (62 of 111). In deciding sets, A. Sabalenka wins 57 % of the time (106 matches), E. Rybakina 60 % (122 matches). After losing the first set, A. Sabalenka turned 38 % of matches around (90 occasions), E. Rybakina 39 % (102 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Sabalenka went on to win 91 % of matches, E. Rybakina 89 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Sabalenka – E. Rybakina

Who is the favourite between A. Sabalenka and E. Rybakina?
The match is over: E. Rybakina won 2-1. Bookmakers make A. Sabalenka the favourite, priced at 1.69 against 2.21 for E. Rybakina. Pronocast's model had A. Sabalenka winning at 57 %.
When is the A. Sabalenka – E. Rybakina match?
On Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 22:15, at the US Open tournament (Final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Sabalenka and E. Rybakina?
Since 2020, A. Sabalenka leads 9 to 7 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Sabalenka – E. Rybakina?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: US Open

Tournament page

Other matches on 12 September 2026

All matches on 12 September 2026