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L. Castelnuovo vs I. Ivashka prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
L. CastelnuovoI. Ivashka
24.0 %76.0 %
Model favourite
I. Ivashka
Probability
76 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · I. Ivashka

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerShanghaiSemi-finalhard court11:05
L. Castelnuovo
L. Castelnuovo
vs
I. Ivashka
I. Ivashka
1796
Elo
1960
1796
Elo on hard court
1936
7 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
5
Recent matches
6
Even
Head-to-head
Even
3.82
Odds
1.23

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

L. Castelnuovo
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
I. Ivashka
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
5 – 5
Wins – losses
8 – 2
12 – 11
Sets won – lost
16 – 8
4 wins
Current streak
3 wins
10-12 (45%)
2026 record
26-11 (70%)
24-20 (55%)
Record on hard court
62-51 (55%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by L. Castelnuovo and I. Ivashka, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

I. Ivashka comes in with an Elo of 1960, against 1796 for L. Castelnuovo: a 164-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 140 points in favour of I. Ivashka. L. Castelnuovo won 7 of the last ten matches, I. Ivashka won 8. L. Castelnuovo has 4 wins in the last five matches. I. Ivashka has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make I. Ivashka the favourite.

The model gave I. Ivashka the win at 76 %, with a likely score of 2-0. I. Ivashka won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

L. Castelnuovo's last five matches

I. Ivashka's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, L. Castelnuovo beat T. Huang (6-4 6-2), then C. H. Tseng (3-6 7-6 6-2), then Wu Tung-Lin (7-5 6-4), then S. Nam Ji (6-4 6-4). To reach this round, I. Ivashka beat Y. H. Hsu (6-3 6-3), then B. Tomic (6-4 4-6 6-2), then Y. Zhou (6-3 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by G. Zeppieri, who beat Y. Uchiyama in the final (7-6 7-5).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, L. Castelnuovo wins 54 % (20 of 37), I. Ivashka 43 % (29 of 67). In deciding sets, L. Castelnuovo wins 50 % of the time (22 matches), I. Ivashka 54 % (67 matches). After losing the first set, L. Castelnuovo turned 17 % of matches around (35 occasions), I. Ivashka 22 % (87 occasions). After winning the first set, L. Castelnuovo went on to win 84 % of matches, I. Ivashka 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about L. Castelnuovo – I. Ivashka

Who is the favourite between L. Castelnuovo and I. Ivashka?
The match is over: I. Ivashka won 2-0. Bookmakers make I. Ivashka the favourite, priced at 1.23 against 3.82 for L. Castelnuovo. Pronocast's model had I. Ivashka winning at 76 %.
When is the L. Castelnuovo – I. Ivashka match?
On Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 11:05, at the Shanghai tournament (Semi-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between L. Castelnuovo and I. Ivashka?
No meeting between L. Castelnuovo and I. Ivashka appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for L. Castelnuovo – I. Ivashka?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 12 September 2026

All matches on 12 September 2026