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P. Kotov vs A. Galarneau prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
P. KotovA. Galarneau
40.2 %59.8 %
Model favourite
A. Galarneau
Probability
60 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
2-1 · P. Kotov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerShanghaiQuarter-finalhard court10:50
P. Kotov
P. Kotov
vs
A. Galarneau
A. Galarneau
2005
Elo
2006
2043
Elo on hard court
1901
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
2
Recent matches
2
Edge
Head-to-head
–
2.46
Odds
1.60

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

P. Kotov
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
A. Galarneau
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
5 – 5
Wins – losses
6 – 4
13 – 14
Sets won – lost
12 – 9
2 wins
Current streak
2 wins
22-7 (76%)
2026 record
32-22 (59%)
91-72 (56%)
Record on hard court
138-107 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by P. Kotov and A. Galarneau, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

Both players come in with almost the same Elo (2005 against 2006): nothing separates them in the model's rating. On hard court, the gap is 142 points in favour of P. Kotov. P. Kotov won 5 of the last ten matches, A. Galarneau won 6. P. Kotov has 3 wins in the last five matches. A. Galarneau has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, P. Kotov leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Galarneau the favourite.

The model gave A. Galarneau the win at 60 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Kotov won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

P. Kotov's last five matches

A. Galarneau's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

P. Kotov leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, P. Kotov beat E. Ymer (3-6 6-3 7-6), then Ja. Delaney (7-6 7-6). To reach this round, A. Galarneau beat S. Pankin (7-6 6-4), then L. Xiao (6-3 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by G. Zeppieri, who beat Y. Uchiyama in the final (7-6 7-5).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, P. Kotov wins 54 % (68 of 126), A. Galarneau 53 % (72 of 136). In deciding sets, P. Kotov wins 54 % of the time (100 matches), A. Galarneau 49 % (120 matches). After losing the first set, P. Kotov turned 23 % of matches around (134 occasions), A. Galarneau 17 % (136 occasions). After winning the first set, P. Kotov went on to win 83 % of matches, A. Galarneau 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about P. Kotov – A. Galarneau

Who is the favourite between P. Kotov and A. Galarneau?
The match is over: P. Kotov won 2-1. Bookmakers make A. Galarneau the favourite, priced at 1.60 against 2.46 for P. Kotov. Pronocast's model had A. Galarneau winning at 60 %.
When is the P. Kotov – A. Galarneau match?
On Friday, 11 September 2026 at 10:50, at the Shanghai tournament (Quarter-final, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between P. Kotov and A. Galarneau?
Since 2020, P. Kotov leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for P. Kotov – A. Galarneau?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Shanghai

Tournament page

Other matches on 11 September 2026

All matches on 11 September 2026