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Y. Bu vs N. Djokovic prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
Y. BuN. Djokovic
22.8 %77.2 %
Model favourite
N. Djokovic
Probability
77 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · N. Djokovic

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingRound of 16hard court14:35
Y. Bu
Y. Bu
vs
N. Djokovic
N. Djokovic
2148
Elo
2444
2049
Elo on hard court
2338
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
4
Recent matches
1
Even
Head-to-head
Even
3.67
Odds
1.27

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

Y. Bu
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
N. Djokovic
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
6 – 4
15 – 12
Sets won – lost
22 – 16
1 win
Current streak
1 win
33-18 (65%)
2026 record
14-7 (67%)
116-76 (60%)
Record on hard court
114-22 (84%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by Y. Bu and N. Djokovic, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

N. Djokovic comes in with an Elo of 2444, against 2148 for Y. Bu: a 296-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 289 points in favour of N. Djokovic. Y. Bu won 6 of the last ten matches, N. Djokovic won 6. Y. Bu has 3 wins in the last five matches. N. Djokovic has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make N. Djokovic the favourite.

The model gave N. Djokovic the win at 77 %, with a likely score of 2-0. N. Djokovic won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

Y. Bu's last five matches

N. Djokovic's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, Y. Bu beat J. M. Cerundolo (6-2 5-7 6-4). To reach this round, N. Djokovic beat N. Borges (6-3 7-6). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, Y. Bu wins 45 % (50 of 110), N. Djokovic 68 % (83 of 122). In deciding sets, Y. Bu wins 49 % of the time (72 matches), N. Djokovic 63 % (56 matches). After losing the first set, Y. Bu turned 19 % of matches around (95 occasions), N. Djokovic 51 % (69 occasions). After winning the first set, Y. Bu went on to win 82 % of matches, N. Djokovic 94 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about Y. Bu – N. Djokovic

Who is the favourite between Y. Bu and N. Djokovic?
The match is over: N. Djokovic won 2-1. Bookmakers make N. Djokovic the favourite, priced at 1.27 against 3.67 for Y. Bu. Pronocast's model had N. Djokovic winning at 77 %.
When is the Y. Bu – N. Djokovic match?
On Friday, 2 October 2026 at 14:35, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between Y. Bu and N. Djokovic?
No meeting between Y. Bu and N. Djokovic appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for Y. Bu – N. Djokovic?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 2 October 2026

All matches on 2 October 2026