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A. Mannarino vs P. Carreno-Busta prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
A. MannarinoP. Carreno-Busta
37.0 %63.0 %
Model favourite
P. Carreno-Busta
Probability
63 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · P. Carreno-Busta

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingQualifyinghard court08:10
A. Mannarino
A. Mannarino
vs
P. Carreno-Busta
P. Carreno-Busta
2051
Elo
2168
1982
Elo on hard court
2016
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
4 / 10
6
Recent matches
1
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.45
Odds
1.52

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Mannarino
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
P. Carreno-Busta
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
5 – 5
Wins – losses
4 – 6
12 – 14
Sets won – lost
14 – 14
1 win
Current streak
1 win
19-30 (39%)
2026 record
26-17 (60%)
100-112 (47%)
Record on hard court
73-51 (59%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Mannarino and P. Carreno-Busta, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Carreno-Busta comes in with an Elo of 2168, against 2051 for A. Mannarino: a 117-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 34 points in favour of P. Carreno-Busta. A. Mannarino won 5 of the last ten matches, P. Carreno-Busta won 4. A. Mannarino has 3 wins in the last five matches. P. Carreno-Busta has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, P. Carreno-Busta leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make P. Carreno-Busta the favourite.

The model gave P. Carreno-Busta the win at 63 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Carreno-Busta won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

A. Mannarino's last five matches

P. Carreno-Busta's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

P. Carreno-Busta leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, A. Mannarino beat M. Kecmanovic (7-6 3-6 7-6). To reach this round, P. Carreno-Busta beat Y. Zhou (7-5 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Mannarino wins 46 % (62 of 136), P. Carreno-Busta 56 % (55 of 99). In deciding sets, A. Mannarino wins 50 % of the time (105 matches), P. Carreno-Busta 49 % (88 matches). After losing the first set, A. Mannarino turned 20 % of matches around (181 occasions), P. Carreno-Busta 23 % (88 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Mannarino went on to win 83 % of matches, P. Carreno-Busta 81 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Mannarino – P. Carreno-Busta

Who is the favourite between A. Mannarino and P. Carreno-Busta?
The match is over: P. Carreno-Busta won 2-0. Bookmakers make P. Carreno-Busta the favourite, priced at 1.52 against 2.45 for A. Mannarino. Pronocast's model had P. Carreno-Busta winning at 63 %.
When is the A. Mannarino – P. Carreno-Busta match?
On Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 08:10, at the Beijing tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Mannarino and P. Carreno-Busta?
Since 2020, P. Carreno-Busta leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Mannarino – P. Carreno-Busta?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 29 September 2026

All matches on 29 September 2026