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M. Damm vs H. Hurkacz prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
M. DammH. Hurkacz
30.8 %69.2 %
Model favourite
H. Hurkacz
Probability
69 %
Predicted score
0-2
Actual score
1-2 · H. Hurkacz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPChengduRound of 16hard court08:55
M. Damm
M. Damm
vs
H. Hurkacz
H. Hurkacz
2110
Elo
2280
2022
Elo on hard court
2108
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
1
Recent matches
1
Edge
Head-to-head
–
3.08
Odds
1.37

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Damm
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
H. Hurkacz
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
5 – 5
Wins – losses
7 – 3
14 – 12
Sets won – lost
18 – 10
1 win
Current streak
1 win
30-24 (56%)
2026 record
26-18 (59%)
69-57 (55%)
Record on hard court
121-75 (62%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Damm and H. Hurkacz, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

H. Hurkacz comes in with an Elo of 2280, against 2110 for M. Damm: a 170-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 85 points in favour of H. Hurkacz. M. Damm won 5 of the last ten matches, H. Hurkacz won 7. M. Damm has 3 wins in the last five matches. H. Hurkacz has 4 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Damm leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make H. Hurkacz the favourite.

The model gave H. Hurkacz the win at 69 %, with a likely score of 2-0. H. Hurkacz won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

M. Damm's last five matches

H. Hurkacz's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Damm leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Damm beat S. Mochizuki (6-1 6-4). To reach this round, H. Hurkacz beat A. Shevchenko (6-3 7-6). In 2025, the tournament was won by A. Tabilo, who beat L. Musetti in the final (6-3 2-6 7-6).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Damm wins 51 % (59 of 116), H. Hurkacz 53 % (124 of 232). In deciding sets, M. Damm wins 39 % of the time (64 matches), H. Hurkacz 55 % (128 matches). After losing the first set, M. Damm turned 18 % of matches around (71 occasions), H. Hurkacz 31 % (110 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Damm went on to win 75 % of matches, H. Hurkacz 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Damm – H. Hurkacz

Who is the favourite between M. Damm and H. Hurkacz?
The match is over: H. Hurkacz won 2-1. Bookmakers make H. Hurkacz the favourite, priced at 1.37 against 3.08 for M. Damm. Pronocast's model had H. Hurkacz winning at 69 %.
When is the M. Damm – H. Hurkacz match?
On Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 08:55, at the Chengdu tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Damm and H. Hurkacz?
Since 2020, M. Damm leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Damm – H. Hurkacz?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Chengdu

Tournament page

Other matches on 26 September 2026

All matches on 26 September 2026