Pronocast
ProductPredictionsPricing
Create account

S. Mochizuki vs J. Faria prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
S. MochizukiJ. Faria
33.2 %66.8 %
Model favourite
J. Faria
Probability
67 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · J. Faria

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoQualifyinghard court08:55
S. Mochizuki
S. Mochizuki
vs
J. Faria
J. Faria
1960
Elo
2180
1848
Elo on hard court
2030
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
4
Recent matches
3
Even
Head-to-head
Even
2.69
Odds
1.39

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

S. Mochizuki
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
J. Faria
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
4 – 6
Wins – losses
7 – 3
10 – 14
Sets won – lost
17 – 11
1 loss
Current streak
1 loss
21-30 (41%)
2026 record
48-24 (67%)
118-110 (52%)
Record on hard court
29-22 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by S. Mochizuki and J. Faria, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

J. Faria comes in with an Elo of 2180, against 1960 for S. Mochizuki: a 220-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 183 points in favour of J. Faria. S. Mochizuki won 4 of the last ten matches, J. Faria won 7. S. Mochizuki has 2 wins in the last five matches. J. Faria has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020 they have met 2 times, 1 win(s) each. Bookmakers make J. Faria the favourite.

The model gave J. Faria the win at 67 %, with a likely score of 2-0. J. Faria won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

S. Mochizuki's last five matches

J. Faria's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

Level, 1 win(s) each

Road through the tournament

This is S. Mochizuki's first match of the tournament. This is J. Faria's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, S. Mochizuki wins 55 % (59 of 107), J. Faria 52 % (43 of 83). In deciding sets, S. Mochizuki wins 53 % of the time (121 matches), J. Faria 56 % (75 matches). After losing the first set, S. Mochizuki turned 20 % of matches around (169 occasions), J. Faria 28 % (88 occasions). After winning the first set, S. Mochizuki went on to win 83 % of matches, J. Faria 79 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about S. Mochizuki – J. Faria

Who is the favourite between S. Mochizuki and J. Faria?
The match is over: J. Faria won 2-0. Bookmakers make J. Faria the favourite, priced at 1.39 against 2.69 for S. Mochizuki. Pronocast's model had J. Faria winning at 67 %.
When is the S. Mochizuki – J. Faria match?
On Monday, 28 September 2026 at 08:55, at the Tokyo tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between S. Mochizuki and J. Faria?
Since 2020 they have met 2 times, 1 win(s) each.
Where can I see the prediction for S. Mochizuki – J. Faria?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 28 September 2026

All matches on 28 September 2026