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Y. Zhou vs P. Carreno-Busta prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
Y. ZhouP. Carreno-Busta
29.1 %70.9 %
Model favourite
P. Carreno-Busta
Probability
71 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · P. Carreno-Busta

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingQualifyinghard court11:35
Y. Zhou
Y. Zhou
vs
P. Carreno-Busta
P. Carreno-Busta
1855
Elo
2163
1795
Elo on hard court
2006
4 / 10
Form (last 10)
3 / 10
1
Recent matches
0
Even
Head-to-head
Even
3.25
Odds
1.30

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

Y. Zhou
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
P. Carreno-Busta
  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
4 – 6
Wins – losses
3 – 7
11 – 13
Sets won – lost
14 – 17
2 losses
Current streak
2 losses
20-20 (50%)
2026 record
25-17 (60%)
35-54 (39%)
Record on hard court
72-51 (59%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by Y. Zhou and P. Carreno-Busta, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

P. Carreno-Busta comes in with an Elo of 2163, against 1855 for Y. Zhou: a 308-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 211 points in favour of P. Carreno-Busta. Y. Zhou won 4 of the last ten matches, P. Carreno-Busta won 3. Y. Zhou has 2 wins in the last five matches. P. Carreno-Busta has one win in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make P. Carreno-Busta the favourite.

The model gave P. Carreno-Busta the win at 71 %, with a likely score of 2-0. P. Carreno-Busta won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

Y. Zhou's last five matches

P. Carreno-Busta's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is Y. Zhou's first match of the tournament. This is P. Carreno-Busta's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, Y. Zhou wins 42 % (21 of 50), P. Carreno-Busta 56 % (55 of 99). In deciding sets, Y. Zhou wins 31 % of the time (42 matches), P. Carreno-Busta 49 % (88 matches). After losing the first set, Y. Zhou turned 14 % of matches around (51 occasions), P. Carreno-Busta 23 % (88 occasions). After winning the first set, Y. Zhou went on to win 70 % of matches, P. Carreno-Busta 81 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about Y. Zhou – P. Carreno-Busta

Who is the favourite between Y. Zhou and P. Carreno-Busta?
The match is over: P. Carreno-Busta won 2-0. Bookmakers make P. Carreno-Busta the favourite, priced at 1.30 against 3.25 for Y. Zhou. Pronocast's model had P. Carreno-Busta winning at 71 %.
When is the Y. Zhou – P. Carreno-Busta match?
On Monday, 28 September 2026 at 11:35, at the Beijing tournament (Qualifying, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between Y. Zhou and P. Carreno-Busta?
No meeting between Y. Zhou and P. Carreno-Busta appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for Y. Zhou – P. Carreno-Busta?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 28 September 2026

All matches on 28 September 2026