Pronocast
ProductPredictionsPricing
Create account

A. Davidovich Fokina vs M. Berrettini prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
A. Davidovich FokinaM. Berrettini
57.9 %42.1 %
Model favourite
A. Davidovich Fokina
Probability
58 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-2 · M. Berrettini

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoRound of 32hard court11:30
A. Davidovich Fokina
A. Davidovich Fokina
vs
M. Berrettini
M. Berrettini
2307
Elo
2211
2187
Elo on hard court
2082
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
4
Recent matches
0
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.65
Odds
2.27

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

A. Davidovich Fokina
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
M. Berrettini
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
8 – 2
Wins – losses
6 – 4
22 – 6
Sets won – lost
22 – 15
4 wins
Current streak
1 loss
27-14 (66%)
2026 record
18-15 (55%)
94-79 (54%)
Record on hard court
62-45 (58%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by A. Davidovich Fokina and M. Berrettini, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

A. Davidovich Fokina comes in with an Elo of 2307, against 2211 for M. Berrettini: a 96-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 105 points in favour of A. Davidovich Fokina. A. Davidovich Fokina won 8 of the last ten matches, M. Berrettini won 6. A. Davidovich Fokina has 4 wins in the last five matches. M. Berrettini has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, M. Berrettini leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make A. Davidovich Fokina the favourite.

The model gave A. Davidovich Fokina the win at 58 %, with a likely score of 2-0. M. Berrettini won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

A. Davidovich Fokina's last five matches

M. Berrettini's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

M. Berrettini leads 1 to 0

Road through the tournament

This is A. Davidovich Fokina's first match of the tournament. This is M. Berrettini's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, A. Davidovich Fokina wins 45 % (61 of 137), M. Berrettini 59 % (81 of 138). In deciding sets, A. Davidovich Fokina wins 47 % of the time (91 matches), M. Berrettini 59 % (71 matches). After losing the first set, A. Davidovich Fokina turned 20 % of matches around (120 occasions), M. Berrettini 38 % (80 occasions). After winning the first set, A. Davidovich Fokina went on to win 81 % of matches, M. Berrettini 86 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about A. Davidovich Fokina – M. Berrettini

Who is the favourite between A. Davidovich Fokina and M. Berrettini?
The match is over: M. Berrettini won 2-1. Bookmakers make A. Davidovich Fokina the favourite, priced at 1.65 against 2.27 for M. Berrettini. Pronocast's model had A. Davidovich Fokina winning at 58 %.
When is the A. Davidovich Fokina – M. Berrettini match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 11:30, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between A. Davidovich Fokina and M. Berrettini?
Since 2020, M. Berrettini leads 1 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for A. Davidovich Fokina – M. Berrettini?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026