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C. Alcaraz vs A. Michelsen prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
C. AlcarazA. Michelsen
84.4 %15.6 %
Model favourite
C. Alcaraz
Probability
84 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · C. Alcaraz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoRound of 32hard court09:45
C. Alcaraz
C. Alcaraz
vs
A. Michelsen
A. Michelsen
2639
Elo
2270
2483
Elo on hard court
2221
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
7 / 10
1
Recent matches
0
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.18
Odds
5.37

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Alcaraz
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
A. Michelsen
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
8 – 2
Wins – losses
7 – 3
22 – 7
Sets won – lost
21 – 8
1 win
Current streak
1 loss
27-4 (87%)
2026 record
35-20 (64%)
154-38 (80%)
Record on hard court
110-67 (62%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Alcaraz and A. Michelsen, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

C. Alcaraz comes in with an Elo of 2639, against 2270 for A. Michelsen: a 369-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 263 points in favour of C. Alcaraz. C. Alcaraz won 8 of the last ten matches, A. Michelsen won 7. C. Alcaraz has 4 wins in the last five matches. A. Michelsen has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite.

The model gave C. Alcaraz the win at 84 %, with a likely score of 2-0. C. Alcaraz won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

C. Alcaraz's last five matches

A. Michelsen's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is C. Alcaraz's first match of the tournament. This is A. Michelsen's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4). C. Alcaraz is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. Alcaraz wins 60 % (92 of 153), A. Michelsen 55 % (59 of 107). In deciding sets, C. Alcaraz wins 74 % of the time (91 matches), A. Michelsen 54 % (92 matches). After losing the first set, C. Alcaraz turned 48 % of matches around (83 occasions), A. Michelsen 28 % (111 occasions). After winning the first set, C. Alcaraz went on to win 94 % of matches, A. Michelsen 82 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Alcaraz – A. Michelsen

Who is the favourite between C. Alcaraz and A. Michelsen?
The match is over: C. Alcaraz won 2-1. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite, priced at 1.18 against 5.37 for A. Michelsen. Pronocast's model had C. Alcaraz winning at 84 %.
When is the C. Alcaraz – A. Michelsen match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 09:45, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between C. Alcaraz and A. Michelsen?
No meeting between C. Alcaraz and A. Michelsen appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Alcaraz – A. Michelsen?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026