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C. Alcaraz vs M. Arnaldi prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
C. AlcarazM. Arnaldi
92.7 %7.3 %
Model favourite
C. Alcaraz
Probability
93 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · C. Alcaraz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoRound of 16hard court06:40
C. Alcaraz
C. Alcaraz
vs
M. Arnaldi
M. Arnaldi
2642
Elo
2113
2490
Elo on hard court
1949
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
4 / 10
2
Recent matches
1
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.06
Odds
9.50

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

C. Alcaraz
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. W
M. Arnaldi
  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
4 – 6
22 – 8
Sets won – lost
13 – 18
2 wins
Current streak
1 win
28-4 (88%)
2026 record
18-15 (55%)
155-38 (80%)
Record on hard court
67-72 (48%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by C. Alcaraz and M. Arnaldi, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

C. Alcaraz comes in with an Elo of 2642, against 2113 for M. Arnaldi: a 529-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 540 points in favour of C. Alcaraz. C. Alcaraz won 8 of the last ten matches, M. Arnaldi won 4. C. Alcaraz has 4 wins in the last five matches. M. Arnaldi has 2 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite.

The model gave C. Alcaraz the win at 93 %, with a likely score of 2-0. C. Alcaraz won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

C. Alcaraz's last five matches

M. Arnaldi's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

C. Alcaraz leads 2 to 0

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, C. Alcaraz beat A. Michelsen (7-6 4-6 6-1). To reach this round, M. Arnaldi beat R. Sakamoto (2-6 6-4 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4). C. Alcaraz is therefore defending the title.

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, C. Alcaraz wins 60 % (93 of 154), M. Arnaldi 57 % (69 of 120). In deciding sets, C. Alcaraz wins 74 % of the time (92 matches), M. Arnaldi 52 % (124 matches). After losing the first set, C. Alcaraz turned 48 % of matches around (83 occasions), M. Arnaldi 26 % (130 occasions). After winning the first set, C. Alcaraz went on to win 94 % of matches, M. Arnaldi 78 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about C. Alcaraz – M. Arnaldi

Who is the favourite between C. Alcaraz and M. Arnaldi?
The match is over: C. Alcaraz won 2-0. Bookmakers make C. Alcaraz the favourite, priced at 1.06 against 9.50 for M. Arnaldi. Pronocast's model had C. Alcaraz winning at 93 %.
When is the C. Alcaraz – M. Arnaldi match?
On Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 06:40, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between C. Alcaraz and M. Arnaldi?
Since 2020, C. Alcaraz leads 2 to 0 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for C. Alcaraz – M. Arnaldi?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 3 October 2026

All matches on 3 October 2026