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D. Medvedev vs J-L. Struff prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
D. MedvedevJ-L. Struff
85.5 %14.5 %
Model favourite
D. Medvedev
Probability
85 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · D. Medvedev

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingRound of 16hard court12:15
D. Medvedev
D. Medvedev
vs
J-L. Struff
J-L. Struff
2334
Elo
2112
2298
Elo on hard court
1964
8 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
5
Recent matches
1
Edge
Head-to-head
–
1.14
Odds
5.90

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

D. Medvedev
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
J-L. Struff
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
8 – 2
Wins – losses
5 – 5
19 – 6
Sets won – lost
15 – 14
5 wins
Current streak
1 win
39-16 (71%)
2026 record
18-22 (45%)
191-67 (74%)
Record on hard court
76-80 (49%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by D. Medvedev and J-L. Struff, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

D. Medvedev comes in with an Elo of 2334, against 2112 for J-L. Struff: a 222-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 334 points in favour of D. Medvedev. D. Medvedev won 8 of the last ten matches, J-L. Struff won 5. D. Medvedev has 5 wins in the last five matches. J-L. Struff has 3 wins in the last five matches. Since 2020, D. Medvedev leads 4 to 2 in their direct meetings. Bookmakers make D. Medvedev the favourite.

The model gave D. Medvedev the win at 85 %, with a likely score of 2-0. D. Medvedev won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

D. Medvedev's last five matches

J-L. Struff's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

D. Medvedev leads 4 to 2

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, D. Medvedev beat P. Carreno-Busta (6-4 6-2). To reach this round, J-L. Struff beat T. A. Tirante (6-1 6-4). In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, D. Medvedev wins 53 % (81 of 154), J-L. Struff 52 % (80 of 154). In deciding sets, D. Medvedev wins 59 % of the time (104 matches), J-L. Struff 45 % (111 matches). After losing the first set, D. Medvedev turned 34 % of matches around (119 occasions), J-L. Struff 22 % (134 occasions). After winning the first set, D. Medvedev went on to win 91 % of matches, J-L. Struff 78 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about D. Medvedev – J-L. Struff

Who is the favourite between D. Medvedev and J-L. Struff?
The match is over: D. Medvedev won 2-0. Bookmakers make D. Medvedev the favourite, priced at 1.14 against 5.90 for J-L. Struff. Pronocast's model had D. Medvedev winning at 85 %.
When is the D. Medvedev – J-L. Struff match?
On Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 12:15, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between D. Medvedev and J-L. Struff?
Since 2020, D. Medvedev leads 4 to 2 in their direct meetings.
Where can I see the prediction for D. Medvedev – J-L. Struff?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 3 October 2026

All matches on 3 October 2026