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D. Shapovalov vs S. Shimabukuro prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
D. ShapovalovS. Shimabukuro
74.5 %25.5 %
Model favourite
D. Shapovalov
Probability
74 %
Predicted score
2-0
Exact score
Actual score
2-0 · D. Shapovalov

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoRound of 32hard court09:55
D. Shapovalov
D. Shapovalov
vs
S. Shimabukuro
S. Shimabukuro
2200
Elo
2005
2178
Elo on hard court
1876
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
4 / 10
4
Recent matches
3
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.34
Odds
3.48

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

D. Shapovalov
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
S. Shimabukuro
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
6 – 4
Wins – losses
4 – 6
17 – 11
Sets won – lost
10 – 14
1 loss
Current streak
1 loss
19-17 (53%)
2026 record
29-26 (53%)
95-70 (58%)
Record on hard court
116-92 (56%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by D. Shapovalov and S. Shimabukuro, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

D. Shapovalov comes in with an Elo of 2200, against 2005 for S. Shimabukuro: a 195-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 302 points in favour of D. Shapovalov. D. Shapovalov won 6 of the last ten matches, S. Shimabukuro won 4. D. Shapovalov has 3 wins in the last five matches. S. Shimabukuro has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make D. Shapovalov the favourite.

The model gave D. Shapovalov the win at 74 %, with a likely score of 2-0. D. Shapovalov won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

D. Shapovalov's last five matches

S. Shimabukuro's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is D. Shapovalov's first match of the tournament. This is S. Shimabukuro's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, D. Shapovalov wins 51 % (62 of 121), S. Shimabukuro 50 % (52 of 105). In deciding sets, D. Shapovalov wins 49 % of the time (83 matches), S. Shimabukuro 49 % (98 matches). After losing the first set, D. Shapovalov turned 19 % of matches around (113 occasions), S. Shimabukuro 20 % (109 occasions). After winning the first set, D. Shapovalov went on to win 85 % of matches, S. Shimabukuro 82 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about D. Shapovalov – S. Shimabukuro

Who is the favourite between D. Shapovalov and S. Shimabukuro?
The match is over: D. Shapovalov won 2-0. Bookmakers make D. Shapovalov the favourite, priced at 1.34 against 3.48 for S. Shimabukuro. Pronocast's model had D. Shapovalov winning at 74 %.
When is the D. Shapovalov – S. Shimabukuro match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 09:55, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between D. Shapovalov and S. Shimabukuro?
No meeting between D. Shapovalov and S. Shimabukuro appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for D. Shapovalov – S. Shimabukuro?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026