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J. Shang vs S. Baez prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
J. ShangS. Baez
59.2 %40.8 %
Model favourite
J. Shang
Probability
59 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
2-1 · J. Shang

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingRound of 32hard court09:55
J. Shang
J. Shang
vs
S. Baez
S. Baez
2064
Elo
2142
1930
Elo on hard court
2034
2 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
1
Recent matches
1
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.65
Odds
2.27

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

J. Shang
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. L
  9. L
  10. L
S. Baez
  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L
2 – 8
Wins – losses
5 – 5
8 – 19
Sets won – lost
12 – 12
4 losses
Current streak
2 losses
5-9 (36%)
2026 record
33-22 (60%)
82-55 (60%)
Record on hard court
44-60 (42%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by J. Shang and S. Baez, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

S. Baez comes in with an Elo of 2142, against 2064 for J. Shang: a 78-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 103 points in favour of S. Baez. J. Shang won 2 of the last ten matches, S. Baez won 5. J. Shang has one win in the last five matches. S. Baez has 2 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make J. Shang the favourite.

The model gave J. Shang the win at 59 %, with a likely score of 2-0. J. Shang won 2-1: prediction correct.

Recent matches

J. Shang's last five matches

S. Baez's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is J. Shang's first match of the tournament. This is S. Baez's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, J. Shang wins 53 % (54 of 101), S. Baez 51 % (50 of 98). In deciding sets, J. Shang wins 58 % of the time (83 matches), S. Baez 54 % (114 matches). After losing the first set, J. Shang turned 26 % of matches around (73 occasions), S. Baez 23 % (145 occasions). After winning the first set, J. Shang went on to win 79 % of matches, S. Baez 84 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about J. Shang – S. Baez

Who is the favourite between J. Shang and S. Baez?
The match is over: J. Shang won 2-1. Bookmakers make J. Shang the favourite, priced at 1.65 against 2.27 for S. Baez. Pronocast's model had J. Shang winning at 59 %.
When is the J. Shang – S. Baez match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 09:55, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between J. Shang and S. Baez?
No meeting between J. Shang and S. Baez appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for J. Shang – S. Baez?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026