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K. Nishikori vs F. Tiafoe prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Correct prediction
K. NishikoriF. Tiafoe
19.7 %80.3 %
Model favourite
F. Tiafoe
Probability
80 %
Predicted score
0-2
Exact score
Actual score
0-2 · F. Tiafoe

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoRound of 32hard court07:30
K. Nishikori
K. Nishikori
vs
F. Tiafoe
F. Tiafoe
2048
Elo
2382
1972
Elo on hard court
2287
5 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
0
Recent matches
0
Even
Head-to-head
Even
5.00
Odds
1.18

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

K. Nishikori
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
F. Tiafoe
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
5 – 5
Wins – losses
8 – 2
12 – 13
Sets won – lost
23 – 9
1 loss
Current streak
1 loss
9-8 (53%)
2026 record
42-16 (72%)
49-27 (64%)
Record on hard court
130-82 (61%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by K. Nishikori and F. Tiafoe, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

F. Tiafoe comes in with an Elo of 2382, against 2048 for K. Nishikori: a 334-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 316 points in favour of F. Tiafoe. K. Nishikori won 5 of the last ten matches, F. Tiafoe won 8. K. Nishikori has 3 wins in the last five matches. F. Tiafoe has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make F. Tiafoe the favourite.

The model gave F. Tiafoe the win at 80 %, with a likely score of 2-0. F. Tiafoe won 2-0: prediction correct.

Recent matches

K. Nishikori's last five matches

F. Tiafoe's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is K. Nishikori's first match of the tournament. This is F. Tiafoe's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, K. Nishikori wins 52 % (15 of 29), F. Tiafoe 60 % (120 of 201). In deciding sets, K. Nishikori wins 70 % of the time (43 matches), F. Tiafoe 57 % (115 matches). After losing the first set, K. Nishikori turned 27 % of matches around (37 occasions), F. Tiafoe 32 % (138 occasions). After winning the first set, K. Nishikori went on to win 86 % of matches, F. Tiafoe 82 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about K. Nishikori – F. Tiafoe

Who is the favourite between K. Nishikori and F. Tiafoe?
The match is over: F. Tiafoe won 2-0. Bookmakers make F. Tiafoe the favourite, priced at 1.18 against 5.00 for K. Nishikori. Pronocast's model had F. Tiafoe winning at 80 %.
When is the K. Nishikori – F. Tiafoe match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 07:30, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between K. Nishikori and F. Tiafoe?
No meeting between K. Nishikori and F. Tiafoe appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for K. Nishikori – F. Tiafoe?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026