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L. Tien vs H. Hurkacz prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
L. TienH. Hurkacz
62.2 %37.8 %
Model favourite
L. Tien
Probability
62 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
1-2 · H. Hurkacz

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPBeijingRound of 32hard court13:30
L. Tien
L. Tien
vs
H. Hurkacz
H. Hurkacz
2311
Elo
2294
2225
Elo on hard court
2142
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
8 / 10
4
Recent matches
5
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.62
Odds
2.48

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

L. Tien
  1. W
  2. L
  3. W
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. W
  8. L
  9. W
  10. L
H. Hurkacz
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
  6. W
  7. W
  8. W
  9. W
  10. L
6 – 4
Wins – losses
8 – 2
18 – 12
Sets won – lost
18 – 9
1 loss
Current streak
1 loss
31-18 (63%)
2026 record
29-19 (60%)
99-45 (69%)
Record on hard court
124-76 (62%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by L. Tien and H. Hurkacz, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

L. Tien comes in with an Elo of 2311, against 2294 for H. Hurkacz: a 17-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 83 points in favour of L. Tien. L. Tien won 6 of the last ten matches, H. Hurkacz won 8. L. Tien has 2 wins in the last five matches. H. Hurkacz has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make L. Tien the favourite.

The model gave L. Tien the win at 62 %, with a likely score of 2-0. H. Hurkacz won 2-1: prediction missed.

Recent matches

L. Tien's last five matches

H. Hurkacz's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

This is L. Tien's first match of the tournament. This is H. Hurkacz's first match of the tournament. In 2025, the tournament was won by J. Sinner, who beat L. Tien in the final (6-2 6-2).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, L. Tien wins 63 % (49 of 78), H. Hurkacz 53 % (125 of 235). In deciding sets, L. Tien wins 70 % of the time (67 matches), H. Hurkacz 55 % (130 matches). After losing the first set, L. Tien turned 33 % of matches around (79 occasions), H. Hurkacz 32 % (113 occasions). After winning the first set, L. Tien went on to win 89 % of matches, H. Hurkacz 83 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about L. Tien – H. Hurkacz

Who is the favourite between L. Tien and H. Hurkacz?
The match is over: H. Hurkacz won 2-1. Bookmakers make L. Tien the favourite, priced at 1.62 against 2.48 for H. Hurkacz. Pronocast's model had L. Tien winning at 62 %.
When is the L. Tien – H. Hurkacz match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 13:30, at the Beijing tournament (Round of 32, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between L. Tien and H. Hurkacz?
No meeting between L. Tien and H. Hurkacz appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for L. Tien – H. Hurkacz?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Beijing

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026