Pronocast
ProductPredictionsPricing
Create account

M. Berrettini vs D. Vallejo prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. BerrettiniD. Vallejo
60.9 %39.1 %
Model favourite
M. Berrettini
Probability
61 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · D. Vallejo

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

ATPTokyoRound of 16hard court09:10
M. Berrettini
M. Berrettini
vs
D. Vallejo
D. Vallejo
2230
Elo
2151
2106
Elo on hard court
1961
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
5 / 10
1
Recent matches
7
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.57
Odds
2.42

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Berrettini
  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W
D. Vallejo
  1. L
  2. L
  3. L
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
5 – 5
21 – 14
Sets won – lost
14 – 14
1 win
Current streak
3 wins
19-15 (56%)
2026 record
43-21 (67%)
63-45 (58%)
Record on hard court
15-19 (44%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Berrettini and D. Vallejo, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Berrettini comes in with an Elo of 2230, against 2151 for D. Vallejo: a 78-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 145 points in favour of M. Berrettini. M. Berrettini won 6 of the last ten matches, D. Vallejo won 5. M. Berrettini has 3 wins in the last five matches. D. Vallejo has 4 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make M. Berrettini the favourite.

The model gave M. Berrettini the win at 61 %, with a likely score of 2-0. D. Vallejo won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Berrettini's last five matches

D. Vallejo's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Berrettini beat A. Davidovich Fokina (1-6 7-6 6-4). To reach this round, D. Vallejo beat T. Daniel (6-3 6-2), then J. Faria (6-4 5-7 7-5), then R. Jodar (6-1 6-3). In 2025, the tournament was won by C. Alcaraz, who beat T. Fritz in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Berrettini wins 59 % (82 of 139), D. Vallejo 33 % (16 of 48). In deciding sets, M. Berrettini wins 60 % of the time (72 matches), D. Vallejo 56 % (62 matches). After losing the first set, M. Berrettini turned 38 % of matches around (81 occasions), D. Vallejo 21 % (86 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Berrettini went on to win 86 % of matches, D. Vallejo 85 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Berrettini – D. Vallejo

Who is the favourite between M. Berrettini and D. Vallejo?
The match is over: D. Vallejo won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Berrettini the favourite, priced at 1.57 against 2.42 for D. Vallejo. Pronocast's model had M. Berrettini winning at 61 %.
When is the M. Berrettini – D. Vallejo match?
On Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 09:10, at the Tokyo tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Berrettini and D. Vallejo?
No meeting between M. Berrettini and D. Vallejo appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Berrettini – D. Vallejo?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Tokyo

Tournament page

Other matches on 3 October 2026

All matches on 3 October 2026