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M. Zheng vs Y. Erel prediction

The prediction, computed before the match

Missed prediction
M. ZhengY. Erel
78.6 %21.4 %
Model favourite
M. Zheng
Probability
79 %
Predicted score
2-0
Actual score
0-2 · Y. Erel

Probability and score were published in the app before the match and frozen since. Model v0.6.

Men's ChallengerJingshanRound of 16hard court06:55
M. Zheng
M. Zheng
vs
Y. Erel
Y. Erel
2163
Elo
1912
2095
Elo on hard court
1912
6 / 10
Form (last 10)
6 / 10
5
Recent matches
2
Even
Head-to-head
Even
1.22
Odds
4.15

Form and record before the match

Last 10 matches, oldest to most recent

M. Zheng
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
Y. Erel
  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L
  9. L
  10. W
6 – 4
Wins – losses
6 – 4
16 – 11
Sets won – lost
14 – 10
1 win
Current streak
1 win
30-15 (67%)
2026 record
15-9 (63%)
61-28 (69%)
Record on hard court
35-26 (57%)

ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches played since 2020 by M. Zheng and Y. Erel, before this match.

What the numbers said before the match

M. Zheng comes in with an Elo of 2163, against 1912 for Y. Erel: a 251-point edge. On hard court, the gap is 183 points in favour of M. Zheng. M. Zheng won 6 of the last ten matches, Y. Erel won 6. M. Zheng has 3 wins in the last five matches. Y. Erel has 3 wins in the last five matches. Their head-to-head record does not separate the two players. Bookmakers make M. Zheng the favourite.

The model gave M. Zheng the win at 79 %, with a likely score of 2-0. Y. Erel won 2-0: prediction missed.

Recent matches

M. Zheng's last five matches

Y. Erel's last five matches

Head-to-head since 2020

No direct meeting since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.

Road through the tournament

To reach this round, M. Zheng beat Y. Zeng (7-6 6-1). To reach this round, Y. Erel beat A. Weber (6-4 6-2). In 2025, the tournament was won by E. Spizzirri, who beat A. Bolt in the final (6-4 6-4).

Key numbers

In tie-breaks, M. Zheng wins 41 % (14 of 34), Y. Erel 49 % (17 of 35). In deciding sets, M. Zheng wins 57 % of the time (30 matches), Y. Erel 45 % (29 matches). After losing the first set, M. Zheng turned 28 % of matches around (40 occasions), Y. Erel 16 % (37 occasions). After winning the first set, M. Zheng went on to win 91 % of matches, Y. Erel 78 %.

Completed ATP, WTA and Challenger singles matches since 2020, before this match, retirements and walkovers excluded.

Frequently asked questions about M. Zheng – Y. Erel

Who is the favourite between M. Zheng and Y. Erel?
The match is over: Y. Erel won 2-0. Bookmakers make M. Zheng the favourite, priced at 1.22 against 4.15 for Y. Erel. Pronocast's model had M. Zheng winning at 79 %.
When is the M. Zheng – Y. Erel match?
On Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 06:55, at the Jingshan tournament (Round of 16, hard court).
What is the head-to-head between M. Zheng and Y. Erel?
No meeting between M. Zheng and Y. Erel appears since 2020 on the ATP, WTA and Challenger tours.
Where can I see the prediction for M. Zheng – Y. Erel?
The prediction is published higher up on this page, with the result and the verdict.

How the model computes its predictions

Same tournament: Jingshan

Tournament page

Other matches on 1 October 2026

All matches on 1 October 2026